The Quality Factors for Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) Are Speaking Volumes

In thie piece we will review the quality ratios and quant metrics for shares of Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO). Avid investors might be interested in how the quality ratios are stacking up for the Energy firm.  Robert Novy-Marx, a professor at the university of Rochester, discovered that gross profitability has as much power predicting stock returns as traditional value metrics. He found that while other quality measures had some predictive power, especially on small caps and in conjunction with value measures, gross profitability generates significant excess returns as a stand alone strategy, especially on large cap stocks.The Gross profitability for Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) is 0.2001.

Inexperienced investors may have the tendency to purchase stocks that have recently been on a big run higher. This may be a result of not paying close attention to the fundamentals, or simply hoping that the stock will continue the move higher. Buying after a big move to the upside may mean that the investor is essentially paying too much for the stock at those levels. Sometimes a stock will take off and get too far ahead of its underlying value which may result in the price being overvalued. Keeping a close eye on the fundamentals may be a good way for the investor to know where the stock stands at any point in time.

Key Stats

Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) based out of Canada and resides in the Energy sector, has a market cap of 893575.6968 after recently touching 12.9 on a recent bid. Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) sees an average of trading volume of 2832.23166. Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) competes in the Energy Equipment and Services industry.

Investors hope that they won’t have to deal with stock picks that don’t pan out, but this happens quite often in the stock market. At some point, the investor may have to make the tough decision to sell a stock that previously had a lot of upward potential. Holding onto an underperforming stock can sometimes hurt the portfolio. Investors may be hesitant to let go of the stock long after it should have been sold. Tracking the underlying fundamentals can assist the investor with figuring out the proper time to buy or sell a particular stock. Mastering this aspect of investing may come with experience, but it may be highly beneficial for the long-term success of the portfolio.

FCF Yield, PI & FScore
Free Cash Flow Yield (FCF Yield) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow. The FCF Growth of Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) is 0.035517. Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure. This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends. Looking out to the 5 year FCF yield, this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow over a longer period of time. The FCF five year yield for Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) stands at 0.065627. Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

The Price Index is a ratio that indicates the return of a share price over a past period. The price index of Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) for last month was 1.078595 while the 3m is at 0.86359. This is calculated by taking the current share price and dividing by the share price at the specifiied time frame mentioned. If the ratio is greater than 1, then that means there has been an increase in price over that timeframe. If the ratio is less than 1, then we can determine that there has been a decrease in price. Similarly, investors look up the share price over 12 month periods. The Price Index 12m for Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) is 0.880652. The Price Index 5Y stands at 0.558442. 

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength.  The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not.  The Piotroski F-Score of Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) is 4.  A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.  The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings.  It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue.  The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

Investors may be drawing up a plan for the stretch run of the calendar year. With stocks riding high, the plan may involve looking at some different classes of shares. If the portfolio is full of large caps, investors may be looking for some small cap growth stocks to add to the mix. Investors may also be looking into purchasing some foreign stocks to get the portfolio as diversified as possible. Investors may also choose to select shares from various industries. Comparing stocks among peers can be a useful way to decide which ones might be ahead of the curve and poised for an upward move.

EBITDA/EV
This multiple is similar to Earnings Yield, but here we use Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as Nominator). By doing this, we can compare companies with a different capital structure and capital expenditures. This way it gives a much better idea of the value of a company compared to the popular P/E ratio. As O’Shaughnessy explaines:

” Stocks that have very high debt levels often have low PE ratios, but this does not necessarily mean that they are cheap in relation to other securities. Stocks that are highly leveraged tend to have far more volatile PE ratios than those that are not. A stock’s PE ratio is greatly affected by debt levels and tax rates, whereas EBITDA/EV is not. To compare valuations on a level playing field, you need to account for how a company is financing itself and then compare how relatively cheap or expensive it is after accounting for all balance sheet items.” – James P. O’Shaugnessy in What works on Wall Street

You can think of it as the taking all the revenue and subtracting the costs that solely go into running the business. The downside of EBITDA is that it can be abused by companies declaring as “one-off” costs things that should really be considered normal costs. We use the EBITDA of the last 12 months.

As denominator it uses Enterprise Value. The formula is as follows:

EBITDA/EV = EBITDA/Enterprise Value

EBITDA/EV has been identified in many academic studies as one of the most predictive valuation factors. Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) has a EBITA/EV of 10.499908.

In the 4th edition of ‘What works on Wall Street’, O’Shaughnessy reported that in his backtests, EBITDA/EV earned the best absolute return over the testing period (1963-2009), unseating all other ratios examined, and doing this with a relatively low volatility.

Gray & Vogel found the EBITDA/EV to be the best performing metric, outperforming investor favorites such as Price-to-Earnings, Free Cashflow to EV and Book-to-Market in the period 1971-2010. They also found in contrast to prior empirical work, that long-term ratios add little investment value over standard one-year valuation metrics. The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of Mullen Group Ltd. (MTL.TO) is 2558.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is believed to be. 

Some traders may be employing technical analysis to try and conquer the market. There are plenty of various indicators that traders can use. Studying different technical indicators can provide some good insight, but the individual investor may want to start by focusing on a few different popular ones. Deciding which indicators to use may require a significant amount of homework. Trying to track too many signals at first might not be the best idea, and it may even create more confusion. Once the indicators have been chosen, traders may spend a good amount of time back testing strategies before making some trades.