Investment Grade Analysis On These Shares: Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB), Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK)

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) stands at 0.060870.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is -0.006976.  Further, the Earnings to Price yield of Atlantic Gold Corporation TSXV:AGB is 0.045354.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.

From time to time, investors may need to decide when to sell a winner. This can be one of the tougher portfolio decisions to make. When a winning stock keeps rising, it can be tough to part with it. Investors may become hesitant to sell because they don’t want to miss out on greater profits in the future. Sometimes this strategy will work, and other times investors may be watching all previous gains evaporate. Being able to sell a winner can provide obvious profits, and it may even be a confidence booster for the average investor. On the flip side, investors may also be faced with the decision of when to sell a loser. Even the most researched trades can go sour. Being able to detach from the trade mentally can end up saving the investor more grief down the line. Holding onto a stock with the hopes of a giant turnaround can be a recipe for portfolio disaster. Being able to cut losses is just as much a part of the process as being able to cash in winners. Learning from mistakes and being able to wipe the slate clean can help the investor be better prepared for future endeavors in the markets.  

Quant Signals – Value Composite, C- Score, MF Rank, M-Score, ERP5

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 46.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 57.

Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) currently has a Montier C-score of -1.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were altering financial numbers in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood of something amiss. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.  

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 6536.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) has an M-score Beneish of -999.000000. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The last signal we’ll look at is the ERP5 Rank.  The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 10355.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Volatility/PI

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 38.512300.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 32.803900.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 35.354300.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) presently has a 10 month price index of 0.89583. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.19444, the 24 month is 1.79167, and the 36 month is 5.05882. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.06173, the 3 month is 1.03614, and the 1 month is currently 0.98286.

ROIC

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 0.123849.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is 0.651148.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Atlantic Gold Corporation (TSXV:AGB) is -0.043421.

When it comes to securing profits in the stock market, investors may be trying to find a perfect system to help attain that goal. Dedicated investors may try strategies that have been passed on to them from other seasoned investors. Even after reading every piece of literature about investing, it might be hard to figure out which way is the best way to successfully conquer the market.  Studying up on company fundamentals and following technical stock levels can be a good place to start, but creating and implementing a plan can be difficult. As we all know, markets change over time. What drives a market during one point in time may not drive the market at a future date. Knowing what to look for when studying technical levels or fundamentals may help lead down the path to increased profits. Many investors will choose to study the indicators with the highest probability of forecasting future market action. 

The Earnings to Price yield of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 0.019868.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.  Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Esker SA ENXTPA:ALESK is 0.028883.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 0.020261.

Dedicated investors tend to spend a lot of time trying to decipher the correct procedure for beating the stock market. This may involve figuring out a proper strategy, and deciding which stocks to start with when constructing a portfolio. Building a portfolio does not have to be a frantic race. In fact, not rushing into things may end up putting the investor in a good position to succeed. There are times when tough decisions need to be made when dealing with the equity market. Spending enough time to assess all the possibilities before making an investing decision may pay off down the road. As most investors know, there is no magic formula for coming out a winner in the stock market. Acquiring the most possible knowledge about the markets and individual stocks can play a vital role in the long-term success of the individual investor. 

Quant Scores/Key Ratios

Now we’ll turn to some key quant data and ratios. The Current Ratio of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 2.39. The Current Ratio is used by investors to determine whether a company can pay short term and long term debts. The current ratio looks at all the liquid and non-liquid assets compared to the company’s total current liabilities. A high current ratio indicates that the company might have trouble managing their working capital. A low current ratio (when the current liabilities are higher than the current assets) indicates that the company may have trouble paying their short term obligations.

Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK)’s Leverage Ratio was recently noted as 0.145569. This ratio is calculated by dividing total debt by total assets plus total assets previous year, divided by two. The leverage of a company is relative to the amount of debt on the balance sheet. This ratio is often viewed as one measure of the financial health of a firm.

The Gross Margin Score is calculated by looking at the Gross Margin and the overall stability of the company over the course of 8 years. The score is a number between one and one hundred (1 being best and 100 being the worst). The Gross Margin Score of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 10.00000. The more stable the company, the lower the score. If a company is less stable over the course of time, they will have a higher score.

At the time of writing, Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) has a Piotroski F-Score of 4. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) has an M-score Beneish of -999.000000. This M-score model is a little known investment tool that was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 67.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 69.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 6023.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Shifting gears, we can see that Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) has a Q.i. Value of 44.00000. The Q.i. Value ranks companies using four ratios. These ratios consist of EBITDA Yield, FCF Yield, Liquidity, and Earnings Yield. The purpose of the Q.i. Value is to help identify companies that are the most undervalued. Typically, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company tends to be.

Price Index/Share Movement

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.29907. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.29188, the 24 month is 1.47638, and the 36 month is 2.36583. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.16167, the 3 month is 1.07231, and the 1 month is currently 1.24021.

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 22.576500.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Esker SA (ENXTPA:ALESK) is 31.671800.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 28.707200.

Investors studying the fundamentals might be conducting in-depth company research before deciding when to purchase a particular stock. The investor checklist may include studying the scope of a company’s competitive industry advantage, examining company management, and trying to get a general feel if the stock is valued properly. Once the decision is made that the company is a good fit for the portfolio, it may be wise to assess whether or not current conditions and price levels indicate proper levels for share purchase. The timing of purchasing a researched stock obviously comes with some level of trepidation. Investors will only know in the future whether they got in at the right price. A stock that looks very attractive today may not be as attractive in the future. Sometimes the investor will just have to trust their research and instinct when purchasing shares.