Coming out Swinging: What’s in Store For PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI)?

Checking in on some valuation rankings, PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) has a Value Composite score of 23. Developed by James O’Shaughnessy, the VC score uses five valuation ratios. These ratios are price to earnings, price to cash flow, EBITDA to EV, price to book value, and price to sales. The VC is displayed as a number between 1 and 100. In general, a company with a score closer to 0 would be seen as undervalued, and a score closer to 100 would indicate an overvalued company. Adding a sixth ratio, shareholder yield, we can view the Value Composite 2 score which is currently sitting at 36. Switching out the sixth ratio with Buyback Yield we can calculate the VC3 score which stands at 35. As with the VC1 and VC2, companies are put into groups from 1 to 100 for each ratio and the individual scores are summed up. This total score is then put into groups again from 1 to 100. 1 is cheap, 100 is expensive.

For the average investor, figuring out how to best approach the stock market can be challenging. Many investors have probably seen at least one of their prized stocks take off in the last year, and they may be wondering which one is next. With the stock market still trading at super high levels, investors may be worried that a major shift will occur in the near future. Looking back over the first part of this year, investors may not have too much to fidget within the portfolio. If the stock market decides to reverse course and take a turn for the worse, investors may start questioning their strategy and become somewhat worried. Drastic shifts in the markets happen from time to time. Investors who are prepared for volatile market environments may be much better suited to weather the storm than those who are not. Crafting a plan that accounts for the regular ups and downs of the market may be a wise choice for the individual investor. This may mean shifting the mindset to be on the lookout for opportunities when they become available. Investors who have done the research and planning might be more secure in their stock choices should turbulent times arise.

Free Cash Flow Growth is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow. Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure. This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends. The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow. The FCF Yield of PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) is 0.035998. Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

The Price Index is a ratio that indicates the return of a share price over a past period. The price index of PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) for last month was 1.049523. This is calculated by taking the current share price and dividing by the share price one month ago. If the ratio is greater than 1, then that means there has been an increase in price over the month. If the ratio is less than 1, then we can determine that there has been a decrease in price. Similarly, investors look up the share price over 12 month periods. The Price Index 12m for PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) is 1.127564.

The EBITDA Yield is a great way to determine a company’s profitability.  This number is calculated by dividing a company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by the company’s enterprise value.  Enterprise Value is calculated by taking the market capitalization plus debt, minority interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents.  The EBITDA Yield for PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) is 83487.5358. 

Altman Z

PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) currently has an Altman Z score of 3.159864. The Z-Score for predicting bankruptcy was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman, who was assistant professor of finance at New York University at that time. It measures the financial health of a company based on a set of income and balance sheet values. The Altman Z-Score predicts the probability that a firm will go bankrupt within 2 years. In its initial test, the Altman Z-Score was found to be 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years before the event. In a series of subsequent tests, the model was found to be approximately 80%–90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year before the event

After a recent scan, we can see that PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) has a EBIT Margin of 0.146647 and an EBITDA Margin of 0.177078. The EBITDA/EV stands at 0.083612.

This multiple is similar to Earnings Yield, but here we use Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as Nominator). By doing this, we can compare companies with a different capital structure and capital expenditures. This way it gives a much better idea of the value of a company compared to the popular P/E ratio. As O’Shaughnessy explaines:

” Stocks that have very high debt levels often have low PE ratios, but this does not necessarily mean that they are cheap in relation to other securities. Stocks that are highly leveraged tend to have far more volatile PE ratios than those that are not. A stock’s PE ratio is greatly affected by debt levels and tax rates, whereas EBITDA/EV is not. To compare valuations on a level playing field, you need to account for how a company is financing itself and then compare how relatively cheap or expensive it is after accounting for all balance sheet items.”

James P. O’Shaugnessy in What works on Wall Street

You can think of it as the taking all the revenue and subtracting the costs that solely go into running the business. The downside of EBITDA is that it can be abused by companies declaring as “one-off” costs things that should really be considered normal costs. We use the EBITDA of the last 12 months.

PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) has a current MF Rank of 1508. Developed by hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt, the intention of the formula is to spot high quality companies that are trading at an attractive price. The formula uses ROIC and earnings yield ratios to find quality, undervalued stocks. In general, companies with the lowest combined rank may be the higher quality picks.

The M-Score, conceived by accounting professor Messod Beneish, is a model for detecting whether a company has manipulated their earnings numbers or not. PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) has an M-Score of 0.283293.  The M-Score is based on 8 different variables: Days’ sales in receivables index, Gross Margin Index, Asset Quality Index, Sales Growth Index, Depreciation Index, Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index, Leverage Index and Total Accruals to Total Assets.  A score higher than -1.78 is an indicator that the company might be manipulating their numbers.

Some of the best financial predictions are formed by using a variety of financial tools. The Price Range 52 Weeks is one of the tools that investors use to determine the lowest and highest price at which a stock has traded in the previous 52 weeks.  The Price Range of PGT Innovations, Inc. (PGTI) over the past 52 weeks is 0.25085.  The 52-week range can be found in the stock’s quote summary.

Traders may be going deeper into the playbook in order to scoop up profits in the current stock market environment. The first half of the year has produced plenty of big winners. Investors will be closely monitoring the most recent earnings releases to hopefully spot the next big mover. Traders may be looking to more closely define some major trends in order to identify which way the momentum is going to carry the stock market into the close of the calendar year. Keeping track of all the financial news and global happenings can be a tall order, even for the most seasoned investors. Staying the course while following a sound investing plan can help the individual investor become prepared for whatever lies ahead. The optimists still believe there is much more room for growth in the markets while the pessimists are calling for a major reversal in the near future. Traders and investors will be closely tracking the major economic news to help come to a solid conclusion about which way the markets are headed. Staying up on the fundamentals as well as the popular technical indicators may help the investor sort through the maze and prepare for the next stage.